Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Gremio hosts Chapecoense-sc in a Serie A clash between two struggling sides fighting for survival. Gremio sits 15th with 25 points from 23 matches, while Chapecoense-sc languishes at the bottom with just 14 points. The hosts have home advantage and superior squad depth, though they arrive on the back of defeats to Atletico Mineiro and Bragantino. Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, boasts the league's worst defence with 46 goals conceded and has struggled significantly away from home. This represents a critical opportunity for Gremio to arrest their recent poor form against the division's weakest team.

Form and H2H

Gremio's recent record shows inconsistency at home with two wins, three draws and five losses in their last ten matches, averaging 0.80 goals for and 1.30 against. Chapecoense-sc's away form is equally concerning: three wins, three draws and four losses, with 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. The head-to-head history favours Gremio, who won 6-3 at home in 2017 and claimed a 1-0 victory in 2016. Chapecoense-sc's last win came in 2017, but they did secure a 3-3 draw at home in 2016. Recent form suggests Gremio should dominate, particularly given Chapecoense-sc's injury crisis affecting key defenders and midfielders.

Best Bet

Gremio's victory represents the most straightforward outcome. The hosts enjoy a significant class advantage, play at home where they traditionally perform better, and face opponents without several key players through injury. Chapecoense-sc's defensive vulnerabilities—the worst in the league—make them susceptible to the hosts' attacking play. At 22Bet, Gremio's win is priced at 1.576, offering value for a match where the home side should control proceedings and secure three crucial points in their battle against relegation.

Odds to Watch

Beyond the match winner, the odds market reflects the attacking potential on display. At 22Bet, the draw is available at 4.17, while a Chapecoense-sc upset win trades at 5.97. Given Chapecoense-sc's recent tendency to concede heavily and Gremio's need for victory, these longer odds suggest limited probability of either outcome. The match setup—desperate home side against injury-ravaged visitors with the league's worst defence—creates conditions favourable to Gremio securing the points.